Our prediction method

Our predictions are not based on gut feeling or "tips": they are produced every day by a statistical model applied to several hundred matches.

1. From odds to probabilities

For each match, the odds of 14 markets (1X2, double chance, over/under, team goals, both teams to score…) are collected. The bookmaker's margin is removed to obtain the real probabilities estimated by the market.

2. A Poisson model

A Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals (xG) from all markets. Matches whose odds are inconsistent with each other are discarded.

3. The selection

Each prediction is scored on its probability, its value, the agreement between market and model, and the margin applied. Two complementary predictions (result + goals) are kept per match, with odds between 1.25 and 2.30.

4. The audit

Every published prediction is settled with the final score and remains visible on the Results page. Our success rate is calculated on this complete history.

Good to know

A 75% probability means that one prediction in four is lost on average. Avoid large accumulators: 10 selections at 75% only win together about 5% of the time.